Impact of climate on tropical infectious disease

Infectious diseases are always a threat to human beings. Given that the transmission of many diseases can be modulated by our physical environment, it is an interesting question to what extent the epidemic dynamics is controlled by climate variability. To address this interdisciplinary issue, we develop epidemic models in which the transmission rate is a function of climate variables depending on the type of disease and explore the role of climate on the epidemic dynamics. As a particular application, we made a prediction during the early stage of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks that hot summer would not be able to stop the pandemic, which was published in Science.

Related publications:

Baker, R.E., Yang, W., Vecchi, G.A. et al. Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Nat Commun 12, 846 (2021). doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1

Baker RE, Park SW, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2020;117(48):30547 − 53. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2013182117

Baker, R. E., W. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, C. J. E. Metcalf, B. T. Grenfell, Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Science 369, 315–319 (2020). doi: 10.1126/science.abc2535

Baker, R. E., Mahmud A. S., Wagner, C.E., Yang, W., Pitzer, V. E., Viboud, C., Vecchi, G. A., Metcalf, C.J. E., Grenfell, B. T., Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates. Nature Communications, 2019. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13562-y