Publications

252 Publications

2022

Journal Article

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in…

Journal Article

The climatology of tropical cyclone flooding in the Carolinas is analyzed through annual flood peak observations from 411 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging stations. Tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 28% of the top 10 annual flood peaks, 55% of record floods, and 91% of floods with peak magnitudes at least 5 times greater than the…

Journal Article

The future projection of tropical cyclone frequency is highly uncertain. Recent multi-model studies showed that the model spread in tropical cyclones is correlated with the model spread in seeds, which are defined as convective weak vortices. However, it was unclear how the model spread is related to the large-scale circulation. Here we apply a…

Journal Article

Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea-level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between…

2021

Journal Article

Global Climate Models (GCMs) exhibit substantial biases in their simulation of tropical climate. One particularly problematic bias exists in GCMs' simulation of the tropical rainband known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Much of the precipitation on Earth falls within the ITCZ, which plays a key role in setting Earth's temperature…

Journal Article
The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global…
Journal Article
In this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution…
Journal Article
Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major…
Journal Article
High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of…
Journal Article
A ∼50 km resolution atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to investigate the impact of radiative interactions on spatial organization of convection, the model s mean state, and extreme precipitation events in the presence of realistic boundary conditions. Mechanism-denial experiments are performed in which synoptic-scale feedbacks…
Journal Article
We here investigate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall asymmetries driven by vertical wind shear on ocean salinity and temperature response to TCs using satellite and in situ observations. On average, TCs tend to initially freshen the ocean surface due to heavy rainfall and subsequently salinity from upwelling and vertical…
Journal Article
Understanding tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is a problem of profound societal significance and deep scientific interest. The annual cycle is the biggest radiatively forced signal in TC variability, presenting a key test of our understanding and modeling of TC activity. TCs over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, which are usually called hurricanes…
Journal Article
The large-scale moistening of the atmosphere in response to increasing greenhouse gases amplifies the existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P − E), which, in turn, amplifies the spatial contrast in sea surface salinity. Here, by performing a series of transient CO2 doubling experiments, we demonstrate that surface salinification…
Journal Article
Confidence in dynamical and statistical hurricane prediction is rooted in the skillful reproduction of hurricane frequency using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, but an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulation extending to the 1880s indicates model-data disagreements that exceed those expected from documented uncertainties. We…
Journal Article
The most recent generation of climate models (the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) yields estimates of effective climate sensitivity (ECS) that are much higher than past generations due to a stronger amplification from cloud feedback. If plausible, these models require substantially larger greenhouse gas reductions to meet…
Journal Article
Multi-year records of satellite remote sensing of sea surface salinity (SSS) provide an opportunity to investigate the climatological characteristics of the SSS response to tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, the influence of TC winds, rainfall and preexisting ocean stratification on SSS evolution is examined with multiple satellite-based and…
Journal Article
The impact of radiative interactions on tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is investigated using a global, TC-permitting general circulation model (GCM) with realistic boundary conditions. In this model, synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed by overwriting the model-generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with their monthly…

2020

Journal Article
Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine…
Journal Article
The semi-arid African Sahel region is highly sensitive to changes in monsoon precipitation, as much of the region’s workforce is employed in the agricultural industry (Hamro-Drotz and Programme 2011). Thus, studying the response of rainfall and aridity in this region to radiative perturbations is a matter of pressing humanitarian relevance. In…
Journal Article
Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019 s Dorian serves to remind us of these storms destructiveness. Decades of effort to understand and predict Atlantic TC activity have improved seasonal forecast skill, but large uncertainties still remain, in part due to an incomplete understanding of the…
Journal Article
Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent…
Journal Article
The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue…
Journal Article
This study is concerned with the connections between the large-scale environment and the seasonal occurrence of rapid intensification (RI) of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Physically-motivated statistical analysis using observations and reanalysis products suggests that for tropical cyclones over the open tropical North Atlantic, the…
Journal Article
The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with Flux Adjustment (FLOR-FA). The cyclone phase space (CPS) is used to diagnose ET. A simulation of the recent historical climate is analyzed and compared with data from the…
Journal Article
Positive precipitation biases over western North America have remained a pervasive problem in the current generation of coupled global climate models. These biases are substantially reduced, however, in a version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) coupled climate model with systematic sea…
Journal Article
Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the…
Journal Article
The Maritime Continent plays a role in the global circulation pattern, due to the energy released by convective condensation over the region which influences the global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate that tropical cyclones contribute to drying the Maritime Continent atmosphere, influencing the definition of the onset of the dry season…
Journal Article
Characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) are known to be influenced by details of the model configurations, including horizontal resolution and parameterization schemes. Understanding model-to-model differences in TC characteristics is a prerequisite for reducing uncertainty in future TC activity projections by…
Journal Article
Here we explore the relationship between the global climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in climate models and the modeled large-scale environment across a large number of models. We consider the climatology of TCs in 30 climatemodels with awide range of horizontal resolutions. We examine if there is a systematic relationship…
Journal Article
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for…
Journal Article
A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then…
Journal Article
The City of Cedar Rapids was significantly affected by the June 2008 flood. However, little is known about the role anthropogenic warming during this event, not only in terms of hydrologic response but also of impacts. Here we use a continuous distributed hydrologic model forced with precipitation with and without external forcing and show that…

2019

Journal Article
The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the…
Journal Article
This study assesses whether, the extent to which and why the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) modulates rainfall in Australia and the Maritime Continent. We find a statistically significant time-lagged association between March-to-May (MAM) PMM and September-to-November (SON) rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia. The association is…
Journal Article
The state of Iowa in the US Midwest is regularly affected by major floods and has seen a notable increase in agricultural land cover over the twentieth century. We present a novel statistical-dynamical approach for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting using land cover and General Circulation Model (GCM) precipitation forecasts. Low to…
Journal Article
North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage. Skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. This study focuses on the development of statistical–dynamical seasonal forecasting systems…
Journal Article
Responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to CO2 doubling are explored using coupled global climate models (GCMs) with increasingly refined atmospheric/land horizontal grids ( 200 km, 50 km and 25 km). The three models exhibit similar changes in background climate fields thought to regulate TC activity, such as relative sea surface temperature …
Journal Article
Tropical cyclone intensification processes are explored in six high-resolution climate models. The analysis framework employs process-oriented diagnostics that focus on how convection, moisture, clouds, and related processes are coupled. These diagnostics include budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static…
Journal Article
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Journal Article
Explosivevolcanic eruptions have large climate impacts and can serve as observable tests of the climatic response to radiative forcing. Using a high-resolution climate model, we contrast the climate responses to Pinatubo, with symmetric forcing, and those to Santa Maria and Agung, which had meridionally asymmetric forcing. Although Pinatubo had…
Journal Article
Prior global climate model (GCM) experiments have shown that the Tibetan Plateau and related orography play a significant role in enhancing the Indian Monsoon, particularly during its onset, and the East Asian monsoon. However, these experiments have been largely performed with atmosphere-only, lower-resolution GCMs that neglect the influence of…
Journal Article
This study examines the performance of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (FLOR; 50-km mesh) and high-resolution FLOR (HiFLOR; 25-km mesh) in reproducing the climatology and interannual variability in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) in both sea surface temperature …
Journal Article
The temporal structure of heat waves having substantial human impact varies widely, with many featuring a compound structure of hot days interspersed with cooler breaks. In contrast, many heat wave definitions employed by meteorologists include a continuous threshold-exceedance duration criterion. This study examines the hazard of these diverse…
Journal Article
Solar geoengineering (SG) has the potential to restore average surface temperatures by increasing planetary albedo 1–4 , but this could reduce precipitation 5–7 . Thus, although SG might reduce globally aggregated risks, it may increase climate risks for some regions 8–10 . Here, using the high-resolution forecast-oriented low ocean resolution …
Journal Article
Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice on regional spatial scales are a pressing need for a broad group of stakeholders, however, most assessments of predictability and forecast skill to date have focused on pan-Arctic sea–ice extent (SIE). In this work, we present the first direct comparison of perfect model (PM) and operational (OP) seasonal…
Journal Article
Recent climate modeling studies point to an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates in response to climate warming. These studies indicate that the percentage increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates often outpaces the increase in saturation specific humidity expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation ( 7% °C−1). We explore the change in…
Journal Article
Mediterranean hurricanes (Medicanes) are intense cyclones that acquire tropical characteristics, associated with extreme winds and rainfall, thus posing a serious natural hazard to populated areas along Mediterranean coasts. Understanding how Medicanes will change with global warming remains, however, a challenge, because coarse resolution and/or…
Journal Article
A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of…
Journal Article
The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States…
Journal Article
The original version of this Article contained an error in the second sentence of the first paragraph of the ‘Quantile mapping’ section of the Methods, which incorrectly read ‘We primarily focus on results produced using an additive version of QDM26 by making use of R programming language code contained in the CRAN MBC package version 0.10–438.’…